2/19/17

Good lord.  This reads like a Cold War spy novel.  

Couple things to keep in mind when you read this article:

1) Who’s who:

Mr. Artemenko = per  Ms. Twohey and Mr. Shane: “Ukrainian lawmaker trying to rise in a political opposition movement shaped in part by Mr. Trump’s former campaign manager Paul D. Manafort.” He is opposing the current Ukrainian president Poroshenko, who replaced the former president Yanukovych in 2014 (who had ties to Russia and is currently in exile there).   I’m assuming here, then, that Mr. Artemenko is pro-Russia.  He is NOT authorized to speak for the Ukrainian government, and instead seems to be attempting to pull power plays to unseat Yanukovych by appealing directly to Trump’s administration.  

Mr. Sater = managing director of Bayrock group, was a senior advisor to Trump when Trump SoHo began in 2006 and “who helped Mr. Trump scout deals in Russia”.  He has an interesting legal past, including being “an “unindicted co-conspirator” and a key figure in a $40 million scheme involving 19 stockbrokers and organized crime figures from four Mafia families” and “embroiled in a plan to buy antiaircraft missiles on the black market for the Central Intelligence Agency in either Russia or Afghanistan” 

Mr. Cohen = per  Ms. Twohey and Mr. Shane:  “A lawyer who joined the Trump Organization in 2007 as special counsel, he has worked on many deals… He is considered a loyal lieutenant whom Mr. Trump trusts to fix difficult problems.” He is married to a Ukrainian woman, and once worked there.

2) Immediate history that is relevant here:

 – Both Mr. Cohen and Mr. Manafort are under investigation by the FBI for their alleged interactions with Russian representatives and connections to Russia and Ukraine.

The F.B.I. is reviewing an unverified dossier, compiled by a former British intelligence agent and funded by Mr. Trump’s political opponents, that claims Mr. Cohen met with a Russian representative in Prague during the presidential campaign to discuss Russia’s hacking of Democratic targets. But the Russian official named in the report told The New York Times that he had never met Mr. Cohen. Mr. Cohen insists that he has never visited Prague and that the dossier’s assertions are fabrications. (Mr. Manafort is also under investigation by the F.B.I. for his connections to Russia and Ukraine.)  (Twohey & Shane)

– Before Mr. Manafort ran Mr. Trump’s campaign, he 

… had been instrumental in getting Mr. Yanukovych elected [former pro-Russia Ukrainian president], helped shape a political bloc that sprang up to oppose the new president, Mr. Poroshenko, a wealthy businessman who has taken a far tougher stance toward Russia and accused Mr. Putin of wanting to absorb Ukraine into a new Russian Empire. (Twohey & Shane)

– Mr. Artemenko arose out of Mr. Manafort’s efforts at opposition in Ukraine and claims to have compromising material on Poroshenko and associates.  He seems to be maneuvering things to oust the current anti-Russia Ukrainian president. 

What has recently come to light:

Mr. Sater (former business associate of Mr. Trump) was put in contact with Mr. Artemenko (Ukrainian lawmaker opposing the current Ukrainian administration) to act as a go-between with Mr. Artemenko and the Trump administration.  Together they approached Mr. Cohen (Mr. Trump’s lawyer) with a peace plan proposal for Ukraine, which, per Mr. Artemenko, had received encouragement from an unnamed top aide to Mr. Putin.  

Mr. Artemenko’s plan “would require the withdrawal of all Russian forces from eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian voters would decide in a referendum whether Crimea, the Ukrainian territory seized by Russia in 2014, would be leased to Russia for a term of 50 or 100 years.”  (Twohey & Shane)

Mr. Cohen said he did not know who in the Russian government had offered encouragement on it, as Mr. Artemenko claims, but he understood there was a promise of proof of corruption by the Ukrainian president.

“Fraud is never good, right?” Mr. Cohen said.

He said Mr. Sater had given him the written proposal in a sealed envelope. When Mr. Cohen met with Mr. Trump in the Oval Office in early February, he said, he left the proposal in Mr. Flynn’s office.

Mr. Cohen said he was waiting for a response when Mr. Flynn was forced from his post. Now Mr. Cohen, Mr. Sater and Mr. Artemenko are hoping a new national security adviser will take up their cause. (Twohey & Shane)

Meanwhile, Rex Tillerson, who is actually the person responsible for such things, has been reassuring the Ukrainian president of “Western unity and solidarity”.  And Vice P Pence met with the Ukrainian president and “’underscored U.S. support’ for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and underlined that the U.S. does not recognize “Russia’s occupation and attempted annexation” of Crimea.”  At the same time, Russia has just started to “recognize passports and other documents issued by rebel authorities [pro-Russian] in eastern Ukraine.”

~*~

Even though his administration is only a month old, it certainly wouldn’t be the first time that Mr. Trump has sent out avatars from his administration to say the sane and reassuring thing to say in this situation (especially Mike Pence), but then behind the scenes do something completely different.

What do you want to bet that first comes a peace plan that benefits Putin’s plan to expand Russia and throws Ukraine under the bus.  Then Trump lifts sanctions against Russia so that Tillerson can facilitate stronger economic ties between Russia and the US – via oil deals.  Which will then leave us with a lot of skin in Russia’s game, much like the US has a lot of skin in the game in the Middle East.  

The best interests of multinational oil companies are not the same as those of the US and Europe.   Their interests would lead the US into more dependence on foreign oil.  I remember the days of the Energy Crisis in the 1980s.  Political heads rolled when gas prices went up, long lines grew at gas stations, and gas stations closed because they had run out of fuel.  I can’t imagine any US politician who could stomach risking the lessons we learned with Jimmy Carter. Will those oil ties with Russia then be “too big to fail?”  How much leverage will the US lose in relation to Russia’s actions in Europe?  How much leverage will the US lose in relation to Russia’s meddling in our internal affairs?

A Back-Channel Plan for Ukraine and Russia, Courtesy of Trump Associates